RE: UKNM: Free ISP business model

[Phil Sykes]

> My personal view is that many of the free ISP's will disappear, just as many

> of the fee paid ISP's disappeared 3 or 4 years ago. Secondly, I think there

> will be a big shift once we get affordable unmetered services. (eg. �30 quid

> a month or so). I know NTL are already implementing a �30 a  month always on

> service using cable modems and it's also rumoured that BT are  releasing an

> ADSL product after it's recent trial in London.


 I think the paid ISPs are going to take a bigger hammering from always on

services, to be honest - those people who know the want the bandwidth and

the always on are going to be techo-savvy folks who are still using pay ISPs

due to inertia, snobbery, better tech support etc. 


 I'm not sure who you refer to of the pay ISPs that died 3 or 4 years ago -

1995 was a year of massive expansion in the number of pay ISPs, and I don't

remember too many (Pavillion? Cityscape?) dying then.


 As far as free ISPs go, I have to disagree with Clay Shirky's theory

they're going to be a parity offering. Affinity based marketing isn't, to my

mind, a proven marketing technique (how many of you use an affinity credit

card as your main card? I know I don't). The fact they're all running

through the same few ISPs, some of whom aren't doing a great job (Telinco

allegedly oversold their bandwidth horribly), and none of whom are getting

very rich is going to mean that offering a free ISP with your unrelated

business (Topshop this week, wasn't it?) is going to be viewed with the same

disdain as most people view the 'free mobile phone' offers that come bundled

with everything from bank accounts to sandwiches.

 

> Do people think that freeserve will fall flat, or will it continue to

grow?

> I've noticed recently that freeserve has been advertising extensively in

the

> Midland's recently, on radio and buses particularly. One theory of this is

> that they've saturated their original marketing channel (i.e.  throwing

CD's

> at people in Dixons).


 Freeserve Plc will implode about the same time as Amazon does in terms of

share price, but unless they do something spectacularly stupid they'll

probably still be the dominant players in the Free ISP market, which will

still be worth the best part of fuck all (and probably less than that, given

the erosion in click-through rates, 1000 impression costs and

interconnection fees that seems inevitable).


Phil Sykes, CentreNet

http://www.centre.net.uk/ 

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