Re: UKNM: Future of the Internet questionnaire

[Ray Taylor]

Phil Gyford <

fabiuswell [dot] com

> said:


>I'm currently taking a course in Futures Studies, and I'd like to

>know what you think is going to happen to the Internet over the next

>ten years. It's further ahead than many of us tend to think,

>especially when it comes to the Net, but the results will be

>intriguing.

>



A quick look at Phil's questionnaire suggests to me that any predictions

will be hampered by a backwards-looking view of the future.


10 years is an awful long time when it comes to the development of digital

electronic technologies. In order to predict future possibilities it might

be worth considering current trends such as the trend for semiconductor

devices doubling in power every year (or probably more now) and the fact

that the lead time for new technology developments has a tendency to reduce.

Thus new technology developments are accelerating.


If you look at the factors limiting internet development they are:


1. Penetration of PCs (and/or other internet devices) in the home and

2. Number of telephone lines installed per home


There are of course political and economic forces at play too, but the

easiest to track are phone lines and PCs. For instance, in Finland, where

there are many more telephone lines per household than any other country,

and most families can afford PCs, there is a rapid uptake of internet

access.


I did some extensive market research / analysis for Jupiter Communications

some time back and this pattern of internet development as we predicted it

then certainly looks like being rolled out more or less according to the

predictions.


Looking forward ten years, we can assume that more and faster telecomms will

be installed in homes and businesses and that more and more devices will

become IP enabled, and this will probably include domestic appliances like

fridges and washing machines, or possibly there will be a kitchen internet

appliance that does the job instead.


Certainly one would expect internet access of some kind to be common for TVs

and other entertainment products. Question is: what will access be used for?


Don't make the mistake of assuming the issue is "The Internet" as we now

know it. The issue is IP-enabled devices and how they will be used and what

services they will be able to access. There may be many different kinds of

services that are independent from each other but all function like the

Internet we know. They are likely to communicate via Internet Protocol (IP)

.


One such service could be the telephone network. As international bandwidth

becomes more and more of a commodity, it is likely that telephone networks

will be established that send calls via packet-switching based on IP, buying

bandwidth as and when they need it. Maybe these will take over from the

current networks. And with the coming of cable modems and ADSL you could

even set up an international low-cost telephone service based on IP and

packet-switching from your own home.


What will all this mean? Well for one thing we may not even refer to "The

Internet" as we now do, or if we do, it could be something very, very

different.


As for e-commerce, we know that more and more products will be bought and

sold over the Internet, and can assume that launch problems with new sites

like Boo and Jungle will eventually be sorted out (or the sites will go down

the bog and themselves be replaced). So, given that more products will be

more easy to access on price and other comparisons, margins will be squeezed

and therefore many players will no longer be able to compete.


There will therefore probably be fewer, better brands, products and

services, sold at more competitive (internationally) prices.


And, since we are on the subject, 10 years from now the term "robot" will

start to come into general use for things that help in the home. Will they

be internet devices or mechanical slaves that help with some of the chores?

Who knows?


And this is all dependent on us surviving the Y2K disasters, of course.


Ray Taylor 


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